Papers

2021 CAREC Oceans Paper
2021 IEEJ Presentation
2021 ADB Presentation
2021 ADB Working Paper

Analysis

2022 Who Makes Foreign Policy in China? Diplomat, February
2022 China’s Disjointed Foreign Policies Concede Agency on Kazakhstan Discourse Control, Russian International Affairs Council, February
2022 Xi Loyalist Ding Xuexiang Could Benefit From Factional Infighting, Diplomat, February
2022 Kazakhstan’s Common but Differentiated Institutions of State Power, Russian International Affairs Council, January
2021 The Clash of Theory and Practice in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (with Péter Bucsky) Progress in Political Economy, November
2021 Northern Corridor for Central Asia-Arctic Ocean Transport Access, Arctic Institute, November
2021 China’s Foreign Affairs Director Seat May Fall out of the Politburo, Diplomat, October
2021 AUKUS has become a Diplomatic Mistake, Eurasia Expert, September
2021 Rural Affairs Specialist Han Jun Likely to Ascend to Vice Premier in 2022, Diplomat, September
2021 Sub-Provincial City Cadres: China’s Leadership Cohort for 2027 and Beyond, Diplomat, September
2021 Chen Gang a Dark Horse to Lead China’s Strategic Technoindustrial Policy, Diplomat, August
2021 Chen Min’er Guarantees Xi Jinping’s Influence Into the 2030s, Diplomat, August
2021 Shen Yiqin, Party Historian, to Bring Depth to CCP Politburo, Diplomat, August
2021 Emerging Ethnic Affairs Policy Specialist Chen Run’er Could Take Over as Xinjiang Party Secretary, Diplomat, June
2021 Chen Quanguo, Architect of Xinjiang Crackdown, Likely to be Rewarded With Central Position in 2022, Diplomat, June
2021 Zhao Kezhi’s Legacy Could Define China’s Regional Security Paradigm, Diplomat, April
2021 2022 Watch: Chen Yixin Likely to Become China’s Internal Security Commissar, Diplomat, April
2021 China’s Central Asian Rail Investment Does Not Add Up, (with Péter Bucsky) Diplomat, April
2021 Middle East LNG Hedging in China’s Energy Diplomacy, Diplomat, March
2021 China Political Risk Architecture Exposed in South Caucasus, Russian International Affairs Council, March
2021 China’s Ocean Policy Specialist to Miss Out on 20th Central Committee, Diplomat, January
2021 Kazakhstan-China Border Delays as Rail Freight Hedge Wobbles (with Péter Bucsky) Diplomat, January
2021 Is Institutionalism Still Useful in Elite China Political Analyses?, Diplomat, January
2020 Politburo 2022 Candidate Analysis: Li Xi, Diplomat, December
2020 China Looks Ahead to 20th Party Congress in 2022, Diplomat, December
2020 China’s Policy Banks Are Lending Differently, Not Less (with Niva Yau) Diplomat, December
2020 Middle Corridor Struggles to Find Its Way Across Eurasia, Diplomat, December
2020 China’s Technoindustrial Policy Is More Soviet Retro Than Japan Innovation, Diplomat, December
2020 Reiterative Policy Divergence—Explaining the Processes of Political Change, Global Policy, November
2020 ASEAN will not Integrate According to European Model, Eurasia Expert, November
2020 Rail Freight Use on China’s Iron Silk Road Underdelivers, Diplomat, November
2020 China’s Fifth Plenum: Old Goals and Shifting Priorities, Diplomat, October
2020 China’s Demand Impact on Eurasia Gas Pricing, ENERPO Journal, Vol. 8. No. 1.
2020 China Missteps With Wild Allegation of a ‘New’ Deadly Pneumonia in Kazakhstan, Diplomat, July
2020 China’s ‘Erhardian Bargain’, East Asia Forum, May
2020 China’s Petrochemical Enterprise Alliance and Iran Oil Trade, Middle East Institute, May
2020 The Ferghana Valley Railway Should Never Be Built (with Péter Bucsky) Middle East Institute, March
2020 Rural China’s Impossible Policy Trinity, East Asia Forum, March
2020 Coronavirus will Reduce China Investment in ‘Belt and Road’ (in Russian) Eurasia Expert, March, reprinted by Mir Peremen
2020 China’s Trade Policy Shift as International Capacity Cooperation Policy Rebranded, Russian International Affairs Council, February
2020 China Running Low on Ideas in Rural Policy, Policy Forum, February
2019 US–Iran Conflict Would Strengthen China’s Position in the Middle East, Russian International Affairs Council, June, reprinted in Russian
2019 Global Ambitions Fuel China’s Nuclear Power Strategy, East Asia Forum, February
2019 Kazakhstan as an Arctic State and a Maritime Power, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, January
2018 Red-state Tax Reform and Xi’s Fiscal Reaganomics, East Asia Forum, November
2018 Spilt Milk: Protecting Exports During Drought, Lowy Institute for International Policy, September
2018 Towards a Central Asia and Caucasus Trade Bloc for Belt and Road, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, October
2018 Afghanistan-Iran Trade Corridors to Bear Fruit for both India and China, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, July
2018 Towards a Post-reform China—more Power to the Party (in Spanish), CIDOB Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, International Yearbook, July
2018 Rise of China’s Export Credit Policy Insurance in Eurasia, Russian International Affairs Council, July
2018 China’s Agriculture Trade Policy Full of Beans, East Asia Forum, June
2018 China Set to Tackle Overseas Investment Risk, Financial Times, June
2018 Central Asia Benefits from US-China Tensions (in Russian) Eurasia Expert, June , reprinted by Mir Peremen
2018 Debt-trap or Dumping Factories? China’s Geoindustrial Policy in External Geographies, Global Policy, June
2018 As it Dumps Entire Steel Factories, China Stays One Step ahead of US, The Hill, June
2018 One Country, One Province: China’s External Industrial Policy in the Middle East, Middle East Institute, June
2018 China’s Agricultural Paradigm Shift, Policy Forum, May
2018 Russia Sanctions Push Kazakhstan Closer to China, Global Policy, April
2018 China’s Policy Bank Investment Profits from Uzbekistan’s Monetary Policy Reform, Central Asia and Caucasus Analyst, April
2018 Consolidating China’s Party-State, Policy Forum, March
2018 Caucasus Trans-Caspian Trade Route to Open China Import Markets, East Asia Forum, February
2018 China’s Rural Revitalisation Strategy Underwhelms, Policy Forum, February
2018 ASEAN Lacks Common Trade Policy on China’s International Capacity Cooperation Strategy, Kyoto Review of Southeast Asia, February
2018 Calm the Alarm on Antarctic Krill Fishery, Lowy Institute for International Policy, January
2017 China’s River-Based Inland Civil Nuclear Policy to Lead Developing Economy Energy Strategies, Global Policy, November
2017 The Next Phase of China’s Trade and Industry Strategy, East Asia Forum, November
2017 Arctic Link Reveals the Full Scope of China’s Belt and Road Ambitions, South China Morning Post, October
2017 China’s Aluminium Industrial Capacity Cooperation in Kazakhstan, Central Asia and Caucasus Analyst, October
2017 13th Five-year Plan on International Capacity Cooperation—China Exports the Project System, Global Policy, October
2017 What to Watch at China’s Party Congress, ChinaFile, October
2017 Ahead of Party Congress, Keep an Eye on China’s Leading Groups, The Diplomat, October
2017 How can China Afford its Science and Technology Goals? East Asia Forum, October
2017 Caspian Sea is China’s Best Bet for Belt and Road, Nikkei Asian Review, September
2017 Why is China Building its Own Domestic Credit Ratings Architecture?, The Diplomat, September
2017 China Eyes Iran as Important Belt and Road Hub, Eurasianet, September
2017 China is Exporting Risk to the Asia-Pacific, East Asia Forum, August
2017 China’s Geoeconomic Strategy and Industrial Transfer in the Middle East, Global Policy, August
2017 The PRC’s International Capacity Cooperation Exports both Industrial Capacity and Financial Risk, Asian Development Bank Institute, Asia Pathways, July
2017 A Closer Look at China’s Import-processing Zones, Policy Forum, July
2017 How China’s Poorest Province Became a Political Kingmaker, The Diplomat, July
2017 Coordinating China’s Satellite Constellations—A New Era in the Space Race Begins, Policy Forum, July
2017 Mongolia Gets On Board with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Eurasianet, July
2017 The Real (Thucydides) Trap is Simplistic Thinking, Straits Times, June
2017 China’s Industrial Capacity Policy is a One-way Street, South China Morning Post, June
2017 A Forum and a Feint—Belt and Road or China’s One-way Trade Street?, Policy Forum, May
2017 Fish Futures—Prospects for Seafood Futures Contracts on China’s Commodity Exchanges, Nikkei Asian Review, May
2017 China’s Agroindustrial Capacity Cooperation in Central Asia, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, April
2017 Central Asia: Challenges Ahead for China’s Belt and Road Project, Eurasianet, April
2017 Australia in the Pacific Century, Policy Forum, April
2017 Prioritising Trading Blocs over Nation States, Lowy Institute for International Policy, March
2017 Australia Risks Isolation from Regional Trade, Australian Institute of International Affairs, February
2017 Risky Business: The Price of Thai Rice, Australian Institute of International Affairs, January
2017 Fewer Boxes on More Boats—The Global Shipping Trade Slump and Death of the Asian Goose, Policy Forum, January
2017 China Returns to ‘Bird in the Cage Economics Policy, East Asia Forum, January
2017 Putting the Pacific on China’s Radar, Asia Pacific Bulletin, East West Center, January
2016 China’s Multilevel Governance Problem—Policies Lost in Transmission in Central Asia, Policy Forum, November
2016 Seeding Risk in Chinese Agricultural Insurance, East Asia Forum, October
2016 E-comm Tax Rules are not so Bad, China Policy (with Yanni Chen) April
2016 2016 Central Document No. 1: Speeding Integration up, China Policy (with Erlend Ek) January
2015 China: from Superclusters to Supercarriers–China’s Local Industrial Policies Reveal National Strategies, The Diplomat, June
2015 Why China is Abandoning State Soy Reserves, East Asia Forum, February